November 8, 2025 | Read online​

The Math Behind Missed Quotas (And How to Fix It)

by Kevin 'KD' Dorsey

Sales leaders say they want accountability. They say they want results.
But what they really need is math.

Because without math, you’ve got nothing but hope—and hope is not a quota plan.

Let’s break this down.

Why Quotas Fail: It’s Not the Reps, It’s the Math

Picture this:

• Your reps have a $200K quarterly quota
• Average deal size? $10K
• Close rate? 20%

That means they need 20 closed deals…
Which means they need 100 qualified opportunities…
Which probably means 300+ meetings or 5x that in raw outbound activity.

Now ask yourself:

If the answer is no, then the problem isn’t your people—it’s your plan.
The quota is vaporware.

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A Mathematical Path to Quota

Every target should be reverse-engineered from:

• ACV / Deal Size
• Close Rate
• Show Rate
• Rep Capacity (aka hours in the day)

A Capacity Check

Can your reps realistically do what’s required?

If hitting quota means running 60 opps in a quarter, do they have time for that?
If it takes 70 calls to generate one opp, can they make enough calls?

You need to ask:

• How much pipeline is needed?
• Where is it coming from—SDRs? Marketing? The rep?
• Are you full-cycle? If yes, how much time is left for closing?

Stress-test it. Because when quota doesn’t map to capacity, burnout follows fast.

BIPSY: Diagnose Before You Prescribe

Before you call out a rep’s underperformance, ask:

• What’s the metric that’s off?
• What’s causing it?

The BIPSY framework breaks it down:

• Behaviors: Are they doing the right activities?
• Individual: Are they engaged? Burned out?
• Process: Are tools, training, and systems in place?
• Skills: Can they do what we’re asking?
• You: Have you done the work as a leader?

Most leaders skip this. They jump to “you need to do more.” Instead of “let’s figure out what’s blocking you.”

How to Apply This (Starting Now)

1. Run the Math.​
   Reverse-engineer the path to quota for each rep based on their metrics, not the company average.
2. Audit Capacity.​
   Does their calendar support what the math requires? If not, reduce the target or increase support.
3. Start BIPSY Reviews.​
   With every underperformer, run a BIPSY issue diagnosis before giving direction.
4. Kill the Averages.​
   Averages are misleading. Study your top reps. What are they doing differently?
5. Use a Calculator.​
   Don’t leave it to gut feel. Use a quota calculator to visualize the path to goal.

Final Word: Aim Small, Miss Small

Stop trying to fix everything. Start fixing the one thing that matters most.

Pick the ONE metric that unlocks results.
Build a coaching plan around it. Track the behavior change - not just the outcome.

Because you can’t change a result. You can only change what causes it.

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